Peak soon
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Peak oil has been with us for some time. Last month, the usually conservative International Energy Agency has admitted that it deliberately had upgraded its estimates of the world's oil supplies - don't frighten the markets, was the highest priority. Then, Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA, said that peak oil might occur as early as 2020. (Others think that oil production has already or is about to peak).
When connecting peak oil and climate change, the argument usually goes like this. Peak oil will delay climate change - as less fossil energy is available, it will be more expensive and less of it will be burnt. Thus, less CO2 will rise into the atmosphere, causing less drastic climate change. In this Friday's Economist Birol has given the argument a new twist:
The IEA reckons that co-ordinated action to restrict the increase in global temperatures to 2ºC will restrict global demand for oil to 89m b/d in 2030, compared with 105m b/d if no action is taken. That, Mr Birol says, “could push back the peak of production, as it would take longer to produce the lower-cost oil that remains to be developed.” Action on climate change may yet save the world from an early supply crunch.
Hope is the last thing to go.
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